Let me start this off by apologizing for my absence. For starters, If you saw my last two months on paper, you would understand. Second off, despite all of your encouraging words, I let the distasteful words of a few people get in the way of being confident in my writing. (People who, decided to bash me on twitter over the world series blog, and very quickly made it apparent that they did not ACTUALLY read what I had to say. Then upon proving that I had a very good grasp of rules and a more than basic understanding of sports resorted to insulting my personal appearance.) But I'm back and hey, screw those guys. (Further justifying my dislike of Cardinals fans...)
So this past week something very interesting happened.
I'm an avid tweeter, and I of course follow hometown boy and Astros starting pitcher, Jarred Cosart.
He's had a phenomenal rookie "season" (partial season. He was promoted from AAA OKC in July). He's from Houston, and having someone come back to their hometown team is always fun. He's blunt and actually kind of funny.
Plus he's pretty easy on the eyes. (Which in no way affects my opinion on him. I saw him pitch against Minnesota in september and while it wasn't a terrible outing, he did give up 4 earned and only lasted 4 innings. I wasn't the happiest girl in the world.)
So earlier this week I'm mindlessly scrolling through my twitter feed when I come across a very, scorned(?..not happy), Cosart talking about how he will prove this past season wasn't a fluke.
I like when a player is training with a chip on their shoulder. Nothing gets you out of bed and into a gym faster than remembering someone doubts you.
But it was upon further investigation I realized something.
OUR OWN FANS WERE THE ONES WRITING THESE BLOGS.
Now don't get me wrong. There are players I don't like that play for the teams I pull for. I used to groan when a player, who shall remain nameless, took the ice. He was a defenceman who screened our own goalie.
It reflected very much in his +/- rating.
So I decided to read some of these blogs. I mean, Cosart impressed in his first stretch in the Majors. He impressed as a prospect. And yet, Astros fans are publicly expecting him to regress. Publicly calling him a fluke.
I'm sorry. Does nobody else want to cling to a glimmer of hope after watching these past few seasons? Losing 100 games in a season IS NOT FUN. Hearing people call your hometown team the "Lastros" or "Disastros", and it be fairly accurate IS NOT FUN. Getting excited about a prospect coming up through your system, or a young guy that's showing a lot of promise in the bigs, and watching your GM trade him for more prospects or a "rental" IS NOT FREAKING FUN.
So I decided to investigate surface stats. All I see is that the kid has rocked a good SO:BB ratio at every level. Decent ERA. He improves. At each level, he has made himself better.
Do y'all realize that he struck out over 23% of the batters during his last stint in AAA OKC? And that's from the 401 he faced, a very decent sample size.
Sure, his ERA in the majors was absurdly low. Sure bats made more contact than I would like. ( any one who really knows me knows that I'm pretty much all about the strikeout and very much suscribe to effective velocity theories. That stuff is insanely interesting, if you're ever bored and looking for a thought provoking discussion.)
But I believe in Cosart.
1. I think that the only way to really learn how to pitch to Major League batters is to actually pitch to batters in the Majors. YES, development is key, but the point of farm systems is to get you used to playing at a certain level, let you succeed there, and then promote you and let you learn all over again. You don't learn to strike out the Big Papi's of the world by pitching to guys in the minors. If he was this effective, while batters were making contact and putting balls into play, CAN YOU IMAGINE if he gets back to striking out almost 1/4 of the guys he faces?
2. Let me reiterate that he shows improvement at every level. Some of his best numbers are from his AAA days this past season. Why would I believe that this trend would fall off? Answer: I don't.
I think we will probably see a higher ERA this season. (Mainly because keeping it under 2.00 is INSANE.) But I think we'll also see a Cosart that has learned what strike zone he has to work with, has been working on what he needs to do to miss bats, and will get those walks down. He now knows what he's facing, and he's certainly motivated.
Plus a sitting mid 90's fast ball that can creep to the high 90's and a curveball that sits high 70's creates a potential 20 MPH difference in what's considered his 2 plus pitches. Read my stuff on effective velocity and batters attention speeds and you'll know especially well why that makes my little heart so warm.
---> Actually, I should probably just explain effective velocity. Basically its a practice of making a hitter miss, or make poor contact, with the ball based off of changing pitches, pitch location, and the batters attention speed. What does that mean? Well it basically means you can trick a batter into swinging too early, or too late.
So let's take Cosart's fastball as an example and to make it easy, let's say he throws it at 95 MPH every time. If he were to throw a straight down the middle of the plate, belt high fast ball, it would look 95 MPH to the batter. However, if he throws that same pitch up and in on the batter, it looks 100 MPH. If he throws the same pitch down and away it looks only about 90 MPH. (up and away, and down and in would look 95.)
So if a batter has really only about the first 20 feet of ball flight to decide rather to swing or not, you can really trip them up. Why is this significant for Cosart? Think about it. With the 20 MPH ACTUAL SPEED difference between his fastball and curve, he could potentially end up with a perceived 30 MPH difference. He throws that fastball up and in on a guy, and that guys "attention speed" is AT 100 MPH. If he comes back on that next pitch with a curveball, and throws it down and away, it could potentially look 70-72 MPH to a batter. Because his attention speed is so high, there's a very slim chance he comes around and makes good contact on that ball, if he makes any contact at all.
It's an interesting tactic. Not one I'm sure that Cosart uses, but just the potential is what makes me so happy when looking at the speed at which he pitches.
I'm very much looking forward to another good season from Cosart and hopefully silence from his critics.
XOXO
And for my delusional little brain that believes that Mr. Cosart himself will one day stumble upon this and be fond of my opinion and read the whole thing- I believe we have the same favorite restaurant in Houston, so the next time we're both there the Chipotle Mac & Cheese and Apt 5D's are on me. :)
